The reverse fixture at the Valley in November saw Saints run out 5-1 winners, but Saturday’s draw proved a much more testing challenge.
Ross Stewart’s 48th minute header was cancelled out by Sonny Carey’s strike as Saints dropped points at home for the first time since 17th January.
Feels like 2 points dropped
Well, it certainly feels like that doesn’t it.
72% possession, 8 attempts on target and 1.24 XG are all positive metrics, but ultimately statistics don’t win you games. The only other meaningful chance Saints created was in the opening 3 minutes, when Leo Scienza’s volley was cleared off the line by Lloyd Jones. Ryan Manning did hit the bar, following a well-worked short corner routine but Thomas Kaminski probably had it covered.
If Saints are serious about being involved in the play-off picture come May, then they will need to be more ruthless in both boxes. The visitors only tested Daniel Peretz once and when called upon, he couldn’t keep out Sonny Carey’s 67th minute strike. I would argue he should’ve saved it.
Only Wrexham (22) have lost more points than Southampton’s 19 from winning positions this season. It’s also worth noting that Charlton haven’t won a game when conceding the first goal of the game, taking (4 points), highlighting they were for the taking.
The frustration also comes from the fact plenty of teams above them also dropped points. Those who started the day in third, fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth and ninth all lost their games. While Saturday wasn’t a must win, it feels like an opportunity missed.
Ross Stewart scores goals
The ‘Loch Ness Drogba’ is averaging a goal every 128 minutes in the Championship this season. His exquisite header from Leo Scienza’s cross opened the scoring in the 48th minute. The Scotsman has scored in back-to-back games following his goal that started the comeback against Leicester last time out.
He has a clause in his contract to extend his current deal for a further year but his recent form could see him rewarded with a longer deal. It seems something both Stewart and the club are keen to do.
The only argument to not offer him a new deal is his injury record. In his 16 league appearances this season, the Scot has managed more than 80 minutes just twice, with the last time that happening against Sheffield United in September.
It’s clear that Saints are a much better side when he’s on the pitch but his previous injury troubles means he needs to be managed well for the play-off run in. The 29-year-old has started the last 4 league games which has seen Southampton claim 13 points.
Figure 1- Ross Stewart meets Leo Scienza’s cross to give Southampton the lead against Charlton
The form of Finn Azaz
Charlton’s compact low block meant the game was made for someone like Finn Azaz but the Irishman had a tough time of it.
Figure 2- Finn Azaz performance against Charlton
In the reverse, the Irishman ran the Addicks ragged scoring two but his recent inconsistency is frustrating Saints fans. In his previous 14 matches, Azaz has only got two goal contributions.
Azaz had a chance to open the scoring, in the 30th minute but lashed at the chance, sending it over Thomas Kaminski’s goal.
Figure 3- Finn Azaz misses chance against Charlton
There is certainly an argument for Tonda Eckert to shuffle his pack for Tuesday’s fixture against QPR. Sam Edozie was bright during his 30 minute cameo, so it could be a case of putting Scienza in the number ten role with Edozie on the wing. Hyuru Matsuki is another one who could be in contention.
The play-off picture
The dropped points on Saturday weren’t from a lack of effort; it was more a lack of quality but you can’t win them all. However, let’s take a look at the positives.
The draw makes it six unbeaten in the League and the gap to the play offs remains at four points. Southampton’s 13 remaining fixtures remain favourable. From their seven home games, Saints only have to play two sides currently above them, with Ipswich (4th) and Derby (9th) due at St Mary’s in April.
I’ll also crunch the numbers for you. Southampton are currently averaging 1.42 points per game, a tally which would see them get to 65 points come May.
65 has never been enough to get into the play offs. Last season Bristol City equalled Leicester’s 68 points in 2012/13 as the lowest total required.
In the previous 5 campaigns, the average points needed for 6th in the Championship is 72 points. Saints, therefore, need 25 from 39 available. That’s a tough ask but not impossible. One things for sure though and that’s they’ll need to be better than they were on Saturday against Charlton.
